Thursday, July 24, 2014

Poverty is terrible even if you have nice clothes and a flatscreen TV

In the discussion of inequality, one common retort is to argue that the poor are not really poor since they often wear excellent shoes and clothes, have iPhones, flatscreen TVs, XBox, and drive decent cars. This is a terribly bad argument for two reasons. First, it reveals a poor understanding of the economy. Amenities like clothes, tvs, iPhones, and even cars constitute an increasingly small faction of the average American budget. This is because continuous productivity improvements drive down the prices of these types of goods. That is like saying because you eat as much fruit as a billionaire, you must be extremely rich.  Meanwhile, education, healthcare, housing, and childcare constitute an increasingly large fraction of the American budget. These goods and services are susceptible to Baumol's cost disease: productivity improvements are very difficult in certain areas and hence prices continue to rise. And in these very important areas, the poor are indeed falling significantly behind.  

The second point is about risk. The ability to manage risk is one of the most important components of well-being in life, yet often gets overlooked. Shoes, TVs, and Xboxes will not help if you need major medical surgery or need to spend exorbitant amounts of money to defend yourself properly in the legal system. The threat, worry, and concern of becoming bankrupt at any given point in time because of the vagaries of life is something unique for the poor and lower middle class. The ability to completely manage risk by the upper middle class and rich manifests itself in many ways. First, not having to deal with the stress of bankruptcy is an incredible boost to one's quality of life. Second, not having to worry about risk afford freedom in a variety of ways: the freedom to move geographically anywhere, the freedom to leave a job you hate, the freedom to leave a bad relationship, etc. Imagine having to give up these freedoms because of the inability to cope with risk and tell me if that compares to having nice sneakers or a TV. 

Because of the the importance of managing risk, wealth inequality is a better proxy for capturing real inequality. Wealth captures both consumption and the ability to manage risk. And wealth inequality is more extreme than consumption and income inequality in the US and is getting more extreme. And even wealth inequality underestimates the real separation between the poor/lower middle class and everyone else. The upper middle class/rich have not only their own wealth but also access to the wealth and support of their significant social networks (social capital). If they need money in case of an emergency, they have wealthy families. If they lose their jobs, they have connections that will help them get another job soon. 

So next time someone argues that the poor dont have it that badly, remember two things: (1) differences in access to goods and services such as education, healthcare, housing, and childcare; and (2) the ability to deal with risk in life. It really, really sucks to be poor and we shouldn't let disingenuous arguments about the consumption of amenities obscure the reality.  

Sunday, July 6, 2014

Individualism and sports


Today's Men's Wimbledon Finals was an instant classic with Novak Djokovic defeating Roger Federer in 5 thrilling sets. The drama was intense partly because this was such an important finals for both players.

Djokovic came in to the Wimbledon finals with a 6-7 record in grandslam finals. With a loss today, he would be approaching Ivan Lendl territory: one of the finest players of his generation but with a losing record in grandslam finals (8-11) that defined his legacy downwards. I thought Djokovic had turned the corner with his 2011 campaign, one of the best ever, with 3 grandslam wins, a 70-6 record, and 6 wins in finals over Rafeal Nadal. He then followed that up with a win at the 2012 Australian open over Nadal in one of the longest and greatest tennis matches ever. It was perhaps the height of the reign of Djokovic. Since then Djokovic's level has dropped off and more troubling has been his inability to close out matches in the late stages of grandslams, leading to a 1-5 record in the finals of grandslams in the last 2 years. 

On the other side of the net, Roger Federer is on the shortlist of greatest tennis players ever. At 32 he is likely in the twilight of his career but he had stormed through Wimbledon 2014 like it was 2006 with only one service game and set dropped through 6 matches. This may have been one of his best remaining opportunities to capture grandslam win #18 at his favorite tournament. 

The high quality match had incredibly twists and turns, especially in the 4th set, where Djokovic blew a 5-2 lead to lose 7-5. His inability to close out the match, combined with his recent struggles must have played havoc on his mind. Add to that a slight ankle injury, no tie breaker in the 5th set, and the unflappable Roger Federer on the other side; that Djokovic was able to win the 5th set was truly a testament to his mental fortitude. 

I've always wondered something about Americans' passionate love affair with sports. Team sports such as football, basketball, and baseball sit atop the pantheon, which belies another observation: Americans value the rugged individual. A tennis match is truly an individual effort. Preparation itself involves a team but during the match, there are no teammates, there is no coaching, there are no breaks for being tired. It's you and the opponent and nothing else. In that 5th set, Novak Djokovic had no one else to rely on except himself. No teammate to pass the ball to as the doubt crept into his head. No sub to take his place for a few minutes while he got treatment for his body. No coach to give him a pep talk or offer strategy. The pressure, the mind questioning, the body breaking down, legacy on the line. Djokovic re-wrote his today. Tennis tests the physical and mental limits of human's capacity for resilience in sports that team sports simply cannot match. This is why I love tennis.