Sunday, October 26, 2014

What do we mean when we say America is resilient and will not lose to terrorists?


On numerous occasions right after 9/11, President Bush said, "the terrorists will not win." Ten years later, President Obama on the 10th anniversary of 9/11 said that American is resilient and "we emerged stronger than before."

I understand that these words and phrases are meant to stoke patriotism at a time of national mourning and are very valuable for that purpose. It is the responsibility of the leader to be strong and inspire strength in difficult times and that is what Presidents Obama and Bush were doing.

But taking a more sober view, what does it mean to say that the "terrorists will not win." The metrics for winning are obvious in sports, politics, and even conventional warfare. What metric can we use to declare if the terrorists have won or lost? Similarly, I understand when we describe a person as resilient. But what does it mean to say that a country is resilient?

Take a minute to think about it yourself before reading my answers to those questions below. In particular, think through what would have to transpire for you to say that a particular country has not been resilient after a significant terrorist attack.

One way to measure is to count the number of terrorist attacks since 9/11. Since there have been 0, that is one way to claim "victory" or "resilience." Though not a perfect metric, because there is definitely much luck involved in having had 0 attacks since then. Also, when there is another attack (and there probably will be one someday), that doesn't immediately make us "losers" or not resilient.

I would define winning and resilience differently. My definition: conditional on protecting our population, have we maintained aspects of what makes American unique (our values, our exceptionalism). I would argue that in several ways we have not satisfied this definition.

First, America has compromised its ethical standing in the world through the use of torture. There is no longer any doubt that America engages in torture during the Bush/Cheney administration, which is against both the Geneva Conventions and our own core values. We have lost a large element of the moral high ground and that is truly tragic. While the Bush/Cheney administration destroyed the soul of America in this regard, Obama also deserves some criticism for white-washed this history instead of healing it. Andrew Sullivan has written prodigiously and passionately about this topic and I highly recommend reading his pieces.

Second, I have been shocked at how easily and quickly the American public has acquiesed to the government's prolific spying and information gathering of ordinary Americans. The American public rails against governmental over-reach in innumerable ways, but in one of the most important ways, incredible information gathering and the loss of privacy, the public has completely capitulated. Even after the Snowden files were released, there was almost no accountability and little public debate on the trade-offs, which still shocks me.

Third, I have been utterly disappointed by America's constant sense of pessimism and fear in the last 13 years. In the past, our attitude of optimism, which in many ways is uniquely American, is inspiring and is something I always valued and cherished. However, that optimism has given way to constant state of anxiety and fear it seems. I think this anxiety started after 9/11 but over the years, the Republican party and the mainstream media, each using its own brand of crazy/stupidity, has stoked these fears and brought out the worst in America. From immigration to ISIS to Ebola, American seems scared about everything right now. This despite the fact that the latter two have led a combined death of five Americans so far.

Even if terrorists don't kill another American, they have fundamentally changed core aspects of American exceptionalism. When a person or country has changed aspects of its core values for the worse, it becomes harder to argue that it has "won" or is "resilient."

Friday, October 24, 2014

My slow disassociation from college sports (in particular the NCAA)



"For 18 years, thousands of students at the prestigious University of North Carolina took fake "paper classes," and advisers funneled athletes into the program to keep them eligible, according to a scathing independent report released Wednesday."

Given that NCAA is brutally tough when athletics programs "lose institutional control" (see USC, Ohio St. etc) because players took some cash on the side, we can expect the hammer on UNC right?

Ummmm. Silence from the NCAA. 

The more complex and generous answer is that that is the problem with imposing draconian laws for something that is arguably not wrong. If you impose bowl bans for players making a little money on the side, what possible punishment would be fair for 18 years of institutional corruption of the charade known as "student athletes." Permanent ban. But of course the NCAA will not do that or anything even remotely close.  

The simpler answer is that the NCAA is a corrupt monopoly where morals, ethics, and consistency are all casualties of maximizing profits for the NCAA. When students take money on the side, it undercuts the NCAA's profits so in their world view, that is the real crime. On the other hand, academic corruption allows "should be professional athletes" to be "student athletes" and make money for the NCAA. Nothing to see here folks, move along. 

In this country that loves free markets, let me count the ways that college football is like Soviet-style communism: 
(i) the NCAA is like the communist party; a monopoly that arbitrarily assigns punishment depending on whether it benefits;
(ii) all workers get the same wage (stipends, scholarships) no matter their relatives capabilities, some well below their market value; 
(iii) the senior members of the party appropriate the rents (coaches, NCAA executives, etc); 
(iv) restrictions on the labor market (players are not eligible to enter the NFL draft for 4 years until the graduate high school!). How else can you get the best players to come to college and earn $0? By not allowing them the opportunity that every other person in the US has: become a professional and earn money for their craft.  Also, "student-athletes" must sit out a year of eligibility when they transfer schools (while coaches have no such restrictions).


I am disgusted by the NCAA and will be avoiding their products.



Sunday, October 5, 2014

Lead and crime

One of the most astonishing facts that I learned recently is the steady and incredible fall in all types of crime in the last two decades years. Overall crime and violent crime have fallen 55% and 51%, respectively since they peaked in 1991.  Yes, you read that right. Across the board, crime has fallen over 50% in the last two decades. You would think that such an incredible improvement in one of the most important aspects of life (safety) would be an indelible part of the American experience in the last 20 years. However, Americans think crime is getting worse every year and feel as unsafe as they did in the 90s, when crime was over 90% higher!

The question as to why there is such a significant gap between perception and reality when it comes to crime is an interesting and important question. Why is the American public unaware of this incredibly good news?!?

Crime increased drastically in the 70s and 80s in the US and peaked in the early 90s. Since then, it has been falling precipitously and now is back to the the levels of the halycon days of the 60s. Understanding the causes of the incredible rise and fall of crime has incredible consequences for society. There are numerous explanations for the crime pattern: more and improved policing, economic conditions, the reversal of the crack epidemic, and demographics are a few of the explanations. However, in my reading, the most compelling explanation is one that you have likely never heard of: lead exposure.



The graph above shows the time trends of two variables with a 23 year lag: (1) violent crime per capita; (2) childhood exposure to lead. Incredibly, there is almost perfect correlation - higher/lower exposure to lead as a child is correlated with higher/lower crime committed by those kids 23 years later. The 23 year time lag is important because most crime is committed by adults in their 20s.

But as we all know, correlation is not causation - there may be many other variables with a similar time trend.  In an example of quality journalism, Kevin Jones documents and summarizes the economic and scientific literature linking lead exposure and crime.  Researches have found the same pattern above, not just for the US, but for many other countries as well. Also, they find that variations in lead reduction at the state-level can largely explain difference in crime reduction across the states. They find the same patterns at the local level. In addition to the strong econometric findings, there is also physiological evidence linking lead exposure to cognitive stunting, poor decision making, attention problems, and higher aggression., characteristics of criminals.

While the book is not closed on this debate, I found the evidence of the link between lead exposure and crime truly compelling. What is remarkable is that the EPA's mandate of the phaseout of leaded gasoline in 1973 and the banning of lead-based paint may have been some of the most socially beneficial policies of our time. And the not full understanding the causes of the dramatic rise and fall of crime led to the mistaken belief that the 3 strikes law in California (which is now finally being rolled back) or the broken windows theory of crime punishment, which were originally believed to have helped reduce crime may have not had a huge impact on crime while locking up millions of people behind bars for petty crimes and destroying their lives unnecessarily.




2014 Ryder Cup and leadership


The Europeans put a pretty sound whipping on the Americans this year at the Ryder Cup. Their 6th win in the last 7 Ryder cups. The Americans are often higher ranked but seem to underperform the Europeans in this team competition and this year was no exception. That being said, I thought Tom Watson made some absolutely atrocious decisions. At the post-match conference, Phil Mickelson called out Watson's leadership and was roundly criticized for his disloyalty. As more news comes out, it seems that Watson not only made horrible decisions as captain, he is as terrible leader. 

      Four sources who witnessed the proceedings in the U.S. team room at the Gleneagles Hotel said that Watson took no responsibility for any shortcomings, scoffed at a gift that the U.S. team members gave him, ridiculed several European team players and started the proceedings by denigrating the Americans' play that afternoon. According to all of the sources, he said: "You stink at foursomes.''

It is true that the players play and ultimately are responsible for pointing up points on the board. But Watson has revealed himself to be a very mean-spirited person with zero leadership skills.